Published: 2013-12-31

Stan gospodarki a stosunek do rządu. Artefakty wynikające z modelu głosowania retrospektywnego

Paweł Matuszewski

Abstract

The article deals with the issue of voting behaviour based on VP-function. The author uses the concept of retrospective voting to examine how macroeconomic indicators correlate with government ratings in opinion polls. The results were verified on account of possibility of appearing some spurious relationships. The data was taken from representative survey studies conducted between 1998 and 2012 by Public Opinion Research Centre (Centrum Badań Opinii Społecznej) and governmental statistics from Central Statistical Office (Główny Urząd Statystyczny). The analysis shows that macroeconomic indicators have a weak predictive value and observed relationships are often artifacts. It means that examined VP-function may lead to misinterpretations.

Keywords:

artifacts, retrospective voting, VP-function

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Citation rules

Matuszewski, P. (2013). Stan gospodarki a stosunek do rządu. Artefakty wynikające z modelu głosowania retrospektywnego. Academic Journal of Sociology, 8, 72–82. Retrieved from https://czasopisma.uksw.edu.pl/ucs/article/view/17148

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